“Those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it.” – George Santayana.
There are some remarkable similarities between the Political Now and that of fifty years ago. I hope we can learn from the Democratic failures of Then and not repeat the mistakes.
In 1968 Democrats ignored the young, activist Progressives and nominated for president a former Vice-President who the party leaders felt was most electable. Although considered a liberal, Hubert Humphrey was part of an administration identified with a divisive war; a war extremely unpopular with the young who were being sent to die in Vietnam by the thousands for reasons that made little sense. Although the voting age in 1968 was still 21, young people were inspired by and worked diligently for candidates Bobby Kennedy and Eugene McCarthy who both promised to end the war. After Kennedy was assassinated on June 6, the anti-war movement was all in on McCarthy; he did well in the primaries and activists hoped he would get the nomination. But the party insiders and power players went for Humphrey. At the convention in Chicago all hell broke loose; police riots, kids being beaten up in the streets, and teargas everywhere. Not the best way to inspire a nation to vote for the Establishment candidate.
In 2016 the Democrats nominated Hillary Clinton over her main primary opponent Bernie Sanders. She was favored by the Democratic establishment who felt it was her turn and she should be the next President. She had liberal positions on most issues but a vote from 13 years earlier to authorize the Iraq War was not forgiven by many, despite her admitting it was a mistake. Hawkish views on Libya and Syria plus Wall Street ties also negatively influenced many Progressives against her. Yet she was viewed as a safe candidate. As a former First Lady, former Senator and former Secretary of State, she had the exemplary resume to be the first woman president to follow the first Black president.
Bernie Sanders, an Independent Democratic Socialist was very far to the left yet he was supported by the young and the Progressives with extraordinary passion. He did not take corporate money, promoted universal healthcare, and higher taxes on corporations and the wealthy. The Sanders supporters felt the nominating process was rigged against their candidate; leaked emails showing that indeed there was bias and unfair actions taken by the Party. There were protests throughout the convention and even a walkout. At the end there was little enthusiasm for Progressives to support what they felt was a corrupt establishment candidate. Many sat home or voted third party in what turned out to be a very close election.
In the 1968 general election, Richard Nixon ran on “law and order” emphasizing inner city riots following the murder of Martin Luther King. He also ran on a secret plan to end the Vietnam War; and of course to appoint conservative judges to the Supreme Court which had turned liberal under Chief Justice Earl Warren.
Humphrey ran on civil rights and continuing Lyndon Johnson’s War on Poverty. As Vice President he did not speak out strongly against the War.
Nixon won. Many Americans continued to die in Vietnam. Divisive street protests persisted as the war was expanded. Little was done to advance the cause of Civil Rights. He appointed to the Supreme Court Warren Burger, Harry Blackmun, Lewis Powell and William Rehnquist.
Forty-eight years later Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton, running on ending wars, being tough on crime and immigration, and appointing conservative Supreme Court justices. Many people wanted to shake up the Establishment and boy did they ever.
After the fiasco of the 1968 Democratic convention, the rules were changed to emphasize the importance of primaries over the influence of insiders. Grass roots anti-war activist support enabled George McGovern to capture the 1972 nomination over moderate establishment favorite Edmund Muskie. He ran on a platform of ending the War and instituting a guaranteed minimum income for the poor. As described in Wikipedia, “the Republicans successfully portrayed him as a radical left-wing extremist incompetent to serve as president.”
Even with the newly lowered voting age to 18, the election was one of the most lopsided in US history with Nixon taking 49 states and 520 electoral votes, McGovern winning only Massachusetts and Washington, DC.
Now, 48 years later, we again have another very consequential election. The Democrats have an Establishment candidate in former VP Joe Biden and a populist left wing candidate in Bernie Sanders leading a large field of 24 at the moment. What can we learn from history to prevent an incompetent, corrupt, and most unpresidential President from being reelected?
We learned that an establishment candidate without the enthusiastic support of the most activist party members will lose to a demagogue with a strong base. We learned that the country will not support a candidate they believe to be far left, even against a corrupt and criminal incumbent.
Looking at the last three elected Democratic presidents, two were Red State governors and one was a senator with a short record from a Midwest state. They were all centrists who advocated change without threatening radical change. There were unique circumstances that enabled election success: Carter followed the ignominy of Nixon’s resignation and Ford’s inflation fueled two years; Clinton had the H. Ross Perot effect and an economy in recession; and Obama had the unpopular George Bush Iraq War and a collapsing economy to run against. Also, all three were relatively young when elected: 52, 46, and 47 respectively.
Democrats are confident that in 2020 they can beat Donald Trump. They also felt confident in 2016 – and lost. Trump is a volatile, unpopular president, except with his base who love him and will turn out to vote. Trump will fight hard in 2020; hard and dirty. Don’t trust today’s match-up polls. Republicans will lie and smear, misrepresent and call names; and dig deep for opposition research. They will have enormous amounts of money, their own propaganda TV network, and all the advantages of incumbency. How someone matches up now is meaningless. It is essential that the Democrats nominate the right person if they are going to win.
There are 24 Primary candidates at the moment; an overwhelming number that needs to be reduced.
The link below is to a guide to the candidates:
https://qz.com/1536793/your-guide-to-the-2020-democratic-presidential-candidates/
How do we narrow down the field? Here’s what I would do.
First eliminate all candidates over 65. We don’t need to nominate a senior citizen. It is time to pass the torch. Younger candidates have a shorter history of mistakes and controversies to emerge. And Democrats have been more successful with younger candidates.
That means letting go of Biden 76, Gravel 89, Hickenlooper 67, Inslee 68, Sanders 77, Warren 69, and Williamson 66. Now we’re down to 17.
Next, eliminate anyone from a coastal deep blue state. In the general election any of the Democratic candidates would win New York, California, New Jersey and Massachusetts. Larger pluralities do not mean additional Electoral College votes. The purple and centrist states necessary for victory are not looking for revolution and radical change. Being a Blue State Liberal does not impress them. Let’s have another heartland candidate.
Bye-bye Booker NJ, de Blasio NY, Gillibrand NY, Harris CA, Moulton MA, Swalwell CA, and Yang NY. Now we’re down to 10.
Remaining declared candidates:
Michael Bennet 54, Colorado senator.
Steve Bullock 53, Montana governor.
Pete Buttigieg 37, South Bend mayor.
Julian Castro 44, former San Antonio mayor.
John Delaney 55, former Maryland congressman.
Tulsi Gabbard 37, Hawaii congresswoman.
Amy Klobuchar 58, Minnesota Senator.
Beto O’Rourke 46, former Texas congressman.
Wayne Messam 44, Miramar Florida mayor.
Tim Ryan 45, Ohio congressman.
What, your current favorite isn’t on this list? You don’t know what some of these people stand for or even who they are? The potentially best president isn’t there?
All of this may be true. But the name of the game is winning. If your favorite is a Senior Citizen or comes from a deep blue state, the chance of winning is reduced. The right choice from this list has a better chance of winning Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin; possibly Ohio, North Carolina and Arizona as well as the Blues.
You don’t know much about them? Use the link above and in five minutes you will know enough to cut the list in half. In another five minutes you can have a top three and that’s all you really need at this point in time.
This is a hugely important election. For the Democrats to win they have to unite behind a candidate they believe can accomplish important policy goals and bring back the respect of the international community. Nominating the wrong candidates a half century ago contributed to election defeats that cost thousands of lives in Vietnam and severely damaged the economy with an inflationary spiral. It allowed a criminal and a demagogue to be the face of America in the world. Now we have climate change and the future of the planet at stake, as well as a multitude of domestic issues and the international world order. Let’s hope we learn from History and choose wisely for the 2020 election.
Be tactical. Be practical. Go Blue!
:>Howard Flantzer
June 9, 2019
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